Research institute · Deloitte UK
Deloitte: UK consumer confidence falls to four-year low
Deloitte's Q1 2026 Consumer Tracker, conducted by YouGov among 3,200 UK adults, finds consumer confidence at its lowest since Q3 2023, driven by sharp falls in disposable-income sentiment and a 13.5-point collapse in views of the UK economy. The category-level pattern matters for any UK B2C marketer planning the next two quarters.
Source published Summarised
Key findings at a glance
- -14.1% Overall UK consumer confidence index value, down 3pp on Q4 2025 and at its lowest level since Q3 2023. The biggest quarterly drop since Q1 2022.
- -7.2pp fall in sentiment towards household disposable income, the largest single-quarter decline on this measure since Q1 2022.
- -13.5pp collapse in consumer sentiment about the UK economy, biggest drop since Q4 2024, returning the measure to Q4 2022 levels.
- 29% of UK consumers say they are only spending on essentials, up from 25% in Q4 2025, a four-point shift in just one quarter.
- 79% of UK consumers who spent more in Q1 2026 say it's because prices have gone up, up from 70% in Q4 2025. The price-attribution narrative is hardening.
- +10.7pp increase in UK consumers' next-quarter intent to spend on eating out, the standout positive signal in an otherwise negative dataset.
- +11pp increase in next-quarter intent to spend on drinking in pubs, pub spend is leading a narrow set of upward indicators.
What the report covers
Deloitte's Consumer Tracker measures six confidence indices, job security, job opportunities, household disposable income, level of debt, children's education and welfare, general health and wellbeing, plus a separate measure on the state of the UK economy. Five of the six index measures fell in Q1 2026. The disposable-income drop (-7.2pp) is the largest single-measure decline; the separate UK-economy sentiment collapse (-13.5pp) is the broader macro signal.
Discretionary spending fell 6.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to its lowest level since Q1 2023, and 6.6 percentage points year-on-year. The split inside that drop: clothing and footwear -11pp QoQ and -10pp YoY; alcohol and tobacco -15pp QoQ and -7.7pp YoY; major household appliances -4pp YoY; electrical equipment -7pp YoY. Big-ticket categories, cars, houses, large appliances, furniture, show the same pattern of postponed purchase.
Within the negative dataset, two positive intent signals: long holidays (+3.2pp) and short holidays (+2pp) were the only leisure categories with meaningful spending increases in Q1, and forward-looking intent for eating out (+10.7pp) and pub drinks (+11pp) was the strongest positive forward indicator in the survey.
What this means for UK marketers
Three operational lessons for UK B2C marketers planning Q2-Q3 2026.
Discretionary goods marketers need to re-read the room. Clothing and footwear (-11pp QoQ), alcohol and tobacco (-15pp QoQ), major appliances and furniture all show meaningful Q1 declines. The 29% of consumers explicitly saying they're only buying essentials is a four-point jump in three months, a measurable behaviour shift, not noise. UK fashion, drinks, and home-goods brands running standard "spring refresh" or "summer drop" campaigns into this audience will under-perform their forecasts. Pivot to value-led messaging: bundle pricing, member discounts, "lock in current prices" angles. Avoid premium-tier launches into Q2 unless you've specifically segmented a non-recessionary audience.
Hospitality and out-of-home leisure is the bright spot. Even as goods spending drops, consumer intent for eating out (+10.7pp) and pub drinks (+11pp) is the strongest positive signal in the data. UK restaurant chains, pub groups, hospitality groups, food delivery platforms, and adjacent leisure categories should be planning growth campaigns into Q2-Q3, the audience is consciously saving on goods so they can keep spending on experience. The "small treat" framing reads honestly; "premium experience" reads tone-deaf.
Big-ticket marketing needs a price-stability narrative. 79% of consumers who spent more attribute it to prices rising. That number is up nine points in a quarter. For UK car dealers, home-improvement retailers, mortgage brokers, white-goods retailers, and any category with a £500+ purchase, the standard "buy now before prices rise further" framing is now table-stakes for messaging, not a distinctive position. The brands that will win share are the ones offering visible price-protection: fixed-price guarantees, price-match commitments, locked-in finance rates. "We'll hold the price" beats "we've cut the price" right now because consumers don't believe the latter.
One signal worth tracking specifically for UK B2B marketers: consumer-confidence drops of this magnitude historically lead corporate marketing-budget reviews by one to two quarters. If you're selling marketing services to UK B2C clients, expect a noticeable wave of "can we cut Q3 budget" conversations starting in the next 6-8 weeks, regardless of how your specific clients are tracking. Plan retention conversations now.
How they got the data
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker is conducted by independent market research agency YouGov on Deloitte's behalf, online, with a nationally representative sample of 3,200 UK consumers aged 18+. The Q1 2026 wave was fielded between 12-17 March 2026. The Tracker has run continuously since Q3 2011, allowing direct quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year comparison.
Overall consumer confidence is an aggregate of six individual measures (job security, job opportunities, household disposable income, level of debt, children's education and welfare, general health and wellbeing). Since Q3 2019, respondents have also been asked their view on the state of the UK economy as a separate measure, not included in the main index.
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From Deloitte UK · published 20/04/2026